Fourth Quarter Housing Slight Improvement
The fourth quarter jobs report was excellent news for the economy and even better for housing: unemployment among 22-32 year-olds fell to 9.0%, and quarterly job growth in “clobbered cities” was strong at 1.9% (annualized rate).
Economic recovery is essential for housing demand. But these three indicators in the quarterly jobs report tell us whether the recovery in housing demand is underway.
Construction jobs are at the heart that connects jobs and housing. Housing demand leads to more jobs in construction and related industries.
Between the ages of 22 and 32 is prime time when many people form households. During and after the recession, household formation dropped for this age group, and more of them than ever are living with parents or other adults rather than renting or owning their own place. These folks will wait to form their own households and consider homeownership only when their job prospects improve. A key measure for housing demand and homeownership is the unemployment rate for this group and the share of this age group that is employed.
In November, the unemployment rate for 22-32 year-olds dropped sharply to 9.0% from 9.6% in October and is at its lowest level since early 2009 (except for a one-month dip this March). The unemployment rate for all adults also dropped, from 9.0% to 8.6%. In November, 73.9% of 22-32 year-olds were employed (the rest are unemployed or not in the labor force because they’re in school, discouraged from looking, or not looking for other reasons), up from lower September and October levels, so the unemployment drop is not primarily due to young adults leaving the labor force.
But the job market remains difficult for this age group: before the recession, unemployment for 22-32 year-olds followed the overall rate pretty much exactly, but has remained above the all-adults rate even as the unemployment rate has drifted down.
The housing bust had unequal effects nationally, with many markets in south Florida, Arizona, and California facing some of the largest price declines and highest vacancy rates. Job growth anywhere will boost housing demand, but compared to other places, these clobbered cities are in more desperate need of motivated homebuyers to help their local housing markets recover. We define “clobbered cities” as metro areas where home prices dropped at least 35% during the bust (according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency house price index) and where vacancy rates are still over 8% (excluding seasonal or vacation homes, according to the 2010 Census). Metro-level BLS data are released several weeks after the national data, so this indicator is for the previous month.
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